Who Will Win Eurovision 2025? Let the Data – and the Fans – Decide! 🎤📊

Alessia Paccagnini
17 mag
Tempo di lettura: 3 min

As the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final takes place tonight, the million-euro question is on everyone’s lips: who will take home the crystal microphone?

While glitter, pyrotechnics, and goosebump-worthy vocals often steal the spotlight, behind the scenes there’s a powerful mix of data, trends, and fan engagement shaping the race. Here some results of preliminary analysis with my co-authors Alessia Morrone, Barbara Będowska-Sójka, Sabrina Giordano, and Claudia Tarantola.

The winner will be crowned through a 50/50 split between national juries and televoting. That means: social media matters. A lot.

👑 The Social Media Stars

Looking at data collected on Friday, May 16, the social media crown goes to Louane (France) — boasting 1.3 million followers across TikTok and Instagram, thanks to her popularity as an actress. She’s followed closely by Tommy Cash (Estonia) with 1.1 million followers on Instagram and Lucio Corsi (Italy) with 1 million.

On TikTok, Louane still reigns, but Gabry Ponte (San Marino) and Emmi (Ireland) also draw attention with 1.2 million followers each. (Although Emmi didn’t make it to the final, she certainly made waves!)

🎧 The Spotify Stream Kings

When it comes to Spotify plays (as of May 7), KAJ (Sweden) leads the pack, followed by Lucio Corsi (Italy) and Claude (Netherlands). This aligns closely with televoting potential, as Spotify streams often reflect real-time fan love.

📺 YouTube: The Visual Arena

The official Eurovision channel tells another compelling story:

KAJ (Sweden): 11 million views
Tommy Cash (Estonia): 6.4 million views
Justyna Steczkowska (Poland): 5.9 million views

And on the semi-final stage, Tommy Cash’s performance drew 2.7 million views, edging ahead of Poland and Sweden. That’s a serious momentum builder just before the final.

🕺 Running Order Magic?

Running order also matters — performances in the second half tend to garner more televotes. Tonight, that’s good news for Sweden, France, San Marino, and Albania. A late slot means a lasting impression just before the voting begins.

🎭 Beyond Glitz: What Wins Hearts?

If we dig into the winners from the past decade, one thing becomes clear: it's not always the flashiest performance or the most polished choreography that wins Eurovision. Sometimes it’s raw energy, cultural authenticity, or emotional depth that captures Europe’s imagination.

Take Måneskin (Italy, 2021) — their rock anthem "Zitti e Buoni" didn’t top the jury vote but stormed the televote, proving that charisma and originality can outweigh jury skepticism. Similarly, Kalush Orchestra (Ukraine, 2022) triumphed with a song in Ukrainian, blending tradition with modern beats — far from a jury-only choice.

Even recent winners like Nemo (Switzerland, 2024) and Loreen (Sweden, 2023) show that less can be more: emotionally charged performances, often minimalistic and centered on the artist, can resonate deeply with both juries and the public.

So, acts like Lucio Corsi (Italy) and Louane (France) — who deliver strong artistic identity and native-language lyrics — may very well strike that powerful balance between jury respect and public love.

🔗 What About Network Analysis?

Interestingly, in 2024, Switzerland’s Nemo was not central in either the textual or musical similarity networks — and still won.

That reminds us: data can't predict the magic. And this year? Again, several non-central songs may surprise us.

🎉 Final Verdict?

With no clear front-runner dominating across all metrics, the stage is wide open. Social media stars, Spotify favorites, minimalist ballads, and visual spectacles — everyone has a shot.

So tonight, let’s keep our spreadsheets on one side and our hearts on the other.

Vote, cheer, and support your favorites — because at Eurovision, anything can happen.

May the most unforgettable song win!